12 June 2010

Has the old top become the new bottom?

The gold price has been quite volitile the past few weeks. Hitting the $1000 barrier seemed to be the top of he gold run in the past two years, this year it has broken $1200 more than once. In the past months it has not fallen below $1000, preferring to bounce in the $1100-1250 range. Have we entered a new bull run, or will we see the price remain stable in this range for the next year?

Certainly the Greek default an EURO 'crisis' is the main motivator behind the latest jump over $1200. In euro terms gold's price has actually jumped close to 50% over the past year, as currency traders are looking for safer havens. Those unconvinced of Gold are returning to the US dollar causing a small bull run there too.

But how long can this last? The fact of the matter is, the US debt situation is no better than Greece's. It's just a matter of time, when the debt will be called and the US will default. Will investors run back to the EURO then? Or perhaps the British pound or Japanese Yen? All currencies have prooven themselves to be unstable at one time or another, and it seems that all continents debt crisis' are about to converge...

Where is the safe haven then? It seems the stage is set for the old currency of Gold to make a comeback again.

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